For example, if you are taking a driving test, and a policeman has stopped you because he says you seem to be over speeding, this is not data. But if you have passed his test and you are now looking forward to your driving test, you may be more relaxed as you get better grades and so your chances of passing the test may increase. This can be predicted with good data from many years.
This may sound like a good news story, but it also leads to a problem. It is possible to test the validity of this hypothesis by using other methods, without using your own data. It may mean that you cannot rely on Bayesian method when it comes to predicting future events.
That is because the Bayesian method assumes the hypothesis to be correct. As such, we cannot prove that the hypothesis is true. So, the problem arises when the Bayesian method fails to give correct results when there is no other information to support it. The result is usually unreliable and it cannot be trusted.
It is not only in one’s life that this problem exists. Even though we know how to make a prediction in a game of chance or an event where the cause is unknown, when it comes to the cause of an event, we cannot just make it a part of our data. The reason is that the cause is unknowable, thus we cannot put any reliable information in it.
We know that the cause of an event is unknowable and that the past and the future are different entities. We may know that something has happened before, but what is the cause of that event? We can use the previous events as data, but we cannot put a causal relation between them. Because of this reason, Bayes Theorem cannot work to predict the future events. It cannot tell us what will happen next or what will happen in the future.
Therefore, if we want to predict the future events, we cannot just make them part of our data and then expect to have accurate results. We need to look at the cause of the past and see what the past shows. If there is some correlation between the two events, this can be used as evidence to support the hypothesis. Bayes Theorems works well when there is enough data to support it.
This is why people should never trust the past events and use their own data to support their hypothesis. They should rely only on the past data and leave the future to the hypothesis. To conclude, Bayes Theorem cannot provide reliable predictions. It is important to understand that the cause of an event is unknowable, and thus it cannot be used to predict the future. Bayesian method cannot give accurate predictions of the future.
However, this does not mean that we cannot make predictions in the future events. We can use the past data to predict the future, but we must remember that even though the cause of an event is unknown, it can still be used to support our hypothesis. With enough data, the hypothesis can be proven true.
This is why people sometimes use the cause of their past to predict something’s future, like the future of the economy, for example. and they claim to have a predictive ability. Unfortunately, they use the cause to predict something’s future and they end up with false predictions because they base their hypothesis on something that is unknowable and therefore cannot provide any reliable information.
When we try to predict the future, we should always look at both the cause of the event and the effect. This way, we can make accurate predictions based on two completely different things. One thing can support our hypothesis while the other can support our hypothesis, but neither of them can prove the other’s hypothesis.